BAFTAs 2015- What do they mean for the Oscars?

We are just 2 days away from the BAFTA awards and it is the final major awards ceremony before the Oscars? With Oscar voting opening tomorrow, who will get the biggest boost from the Academy.

Best Film: If Boyhood wins here, for which they are the favourites, they have a pretty strong chance replicating at the Oscars, as they are favourites there also. If Birdman wins, I would back them to win at the Oscars, as they won at PGA and would be timing their run perfectly. If any other nominee wins, I expect Boyhood to win at the Oscars.

Best Director: Boyhood vs. Birdman again as Linklater faces off against Inarritu. I expect a Linklater win, but even if he does the Oscar could still go to Inarritu. If Inarritu wins, I will go for him as Best Director and stick with Boyhood for Picture. Wes Anderson could be boosted if he gets a shock win, but his win will be more likely in Screenplay. Chazelle and Marsh are both not nominated at the Oscars, so Linklater will remain favourite if they win.

Best Actor: This is the tightest race of all, with Redmayne and Keaton tying on 2 Best Actor awards apiece (Redmayne: Golden Globe-Drama and SAG, Keaton: Golden Globe- Comedy/Musical and Critics Choice). With Redmayne on home turf, I expect him to win and if he does he will have cemented his Oscar win. If Keaton causes an upset, I will back him at the Oscars. Anything other than a Keaton or Redmayne win could open the door for Bradley Cooper who is snubbed everywhere except the Oscars.

Best Actress: Whatever happens, Julianne Moore will still win the Oscar. She faces a more difficult threat here as Rosamund Pike and Felicity Jones are both on home turf and Still Alice hasn’t yet been released in UK cinemas. I’m sticking with Moore as Sony Pictures Classics have done a terrific job sending out screeners, but don’t be shocked if Pike or Jones wins.

Best Supporting Actor: My heart is telling me that Steve Carell will win here, but my head is saying J.K. Simmons, and unfortunately Simmons is going to win, securing his inevitable Oscar win. A win for Carell may get him a few votes at the Oscars, even though he is in the tough Best Actor category, as if he gets to go up on stage he is guaranteed to give a great speech. A win anywhere else is near-impossible. I’m sticking with Simmons, but praying for Carell.

Best Supporting Actress: I can only see one outcome here with a Patricia Arquette win, which is a deserved but boring pick as it is predictable and she always reads off of  paper in her acceptance speeches. Her nearest challenger is Keira Knightley, who has Weinstein backing her as well as the fact that she is on home soil. Personally, I’m hoping for a Rene Russo win, while Stone and Staunton have no chance.

Best Original Screenplay: This is an odd one as I’m going for The Grand Budapest Hotel to win here, while I’m going for Birdman to win at the Oscars. The Brits love The Grand Budapest Hotel and this is the ideal place for Wes Anderson to be awarded. Boyhood and Whiplash are still in the race, while Nightcrawler has very little chance.

Best Adapted Screenplay: I’m going for a win for The Imitation Game, which will be replicated at the Oscars. The Theory of Everything and Gone Girl still have a chance, American Sniper and Paddington are out of it.

Best British Film: A win for Imitation or Theory could help their Oscar chances, but only slightly. I’m going for Theory, but don’t discount Under the Skin or Pride.

Rising Star: This will have no effect on the Oscars as none of these are nominated. I voted for Miles Teller, but I think Jack O’Conell will win. Don’t be surprised if Shailene Woodley wins as she has a massive fanbase.


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