The 68th Primetime Emmy Awards are just days away, and it’s safe to say that we’re in a different position that we were in before the nominations, in terms of predicting the winners at least. It’s an odd situation to be in- it could just as easily go like this year’s SAG Awards, in which there were complete repeat winners across the board aside from Comedy Actor, which went to massive frontrunner Jeffrey Tambor, or like the Golden Globes, where the most random shows and performers won (Mozart in the Jungle? Really?). I’m edging more towards the repeat winners route, but I’m pretty certain there’s some shocks in store- which makes it really difficult to call as you don’t want to mess up a really obvious prediction (like I did with choosing Melora Hardin over Tina and Amy at the Creative Arts), but it’s worth making some NGNG (no guts, no glory) picks, just for the bragging rights (I still haven’t shut up about correctly predicting Hank Azaria last week!)
I’ll start with the Drama categories. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll know that HBO’s Game of Thrones is the biggest show on TV, and received more overall nominations than any other show. If it doesn’t win Drama Series (which it 100% will), it’ll be one of the biggest shocks in Emmy history. It’ll also have an easy time winning Writing and Directing, both for it’s epic episode “Battle of the Bastards”. However, the acting races in all the drama categories aren’t so straight forward. Lead Actor really baffles me. I’m going for Rami Malek, as I can just picture it happening, and with him being the breakout star of the past year, but Kevin Spacey just seems like such a straight forward winner. It’s a tough call, and could mean that we may get a shock winner. Liev Schreiber is a real outside possibility- and a tempting pick for me as I have him locked in at 80/1 in 3rd place on GoldDerby. Lead Actress is a category people are saying is difficult, but I’m pretty confident in picking last year’s winner Viola Davis. Supporting Actor is crazy- will the Game of Thrones actors split? I’m going with no, and I have Peter Dinklage *just* ahead of Kit Harington, just due to how long the Emmys have warmed to him in comparison to Harington. Maybe Jon Voight or Jonathan Banks could take it? While in Supporting Actress, I think vote splitting will definitely be a factor between Lena Headey, Emilia Clarke, and Maisie Williams, allowing Maggie Smith to win for the final season of Downton Abbey.
In the comedy categories, I’m predicting repeat winners across the board, which is boring, but safe. HBO’s Veep will definitely win it’s second Comedy Series title in a row. In Writing, it may have a more difficult time winning again, mainly because it has two episodes nominated, but I think “Mother” is the much more popular episode than “Morning After”, so will take it, though Master of None‘s “Parents” or Silicon Valley‘s “Founder Friendly” could take it. In Directing, I see Jill Solloway winning again for Transparent, this time for “Man on the Land”, but don’t be shocked if Veep win this one too, even though it has 3 episodes, just because “Mother” is so popular. In Lead Actor, Transparent‘s best chance of winning an award is for Jeffrey Tambor here. Anthony Anderson could spring a surprise, but I think Tambor deserves to win this again. Lead Actress is a lock for Julia Louis-Dreyfus, which would be her 5th in a row for her role in Veep– with each win somehow being even more deserved than the last. Supporting Actor is an interesting one. Tony Hale seems to obvious to ignore, hence why I’m predicting him, but can Louie Anderson or Tituss Burgess possibly win. We’ll see, but I think it’ll be Hale, even though that would be a boring pick for such a strong category (I personally would LOVE to see Andre Braugher win, but, alas…). Supporting Actress seems like a done deal for Allison Janney, but she does have strong competition in the shape of Anna Chlumsky, Judith Light, and Kate McKinnon, but there just isn’t enough reasoning to say how Janney loses this.
Over to the Limited Series/TV Movie categories now, and FX’s The People v. O.J. Simpson is going into Sunday in a pretty strong position, after receiving the second most nominations overall this year, and 1 behind Game of Thrones. I think it will more than likely win Limited Series, while HBO’s All the Way should beat weak competition to take TV Movie (even though Sherlock could be worth a punt for a NGNG pick). Movie/Mini Actor is quite a bit trickier- probably the most difficult to call of all categories on Sunday. Will Courtney B. Vance take it? I had him in first, but changed this week to All the Way‘s Bryan Cranston. Vance makes sense, but I think he could split votes with Cuba Gooding Jr., especially if voters only watch a couple of episodes of The People v. O.J. Simpson as Cuba is great in the first few episodes, while Vance does superior work towards the end of the season. Cranston just seems like the obvious default pick- well liked, Emmy veteran, transformation. It’d be a win that I’d kick myself for not predicting, so I’m going for it, but still low-key hoping that Vance takes it, as he certainly is deserving. Sarah Paulson should take Lead Actress, to FINALLY win her first Emmy, but she is a bit cursed by frontrunner status. That being said, she’s too good in O.J. to ignore her again. People think Supporting Actor is pretty tight, but I have complete confidence in Sterling K. Brown winning, mainly because his performance is so different to his O.J. cast mates. The Night Manager‘s Hugh Laurie definitely has a shot, but I think Brown takes it. Put your house on Jean Smart winning Supporting Actress for Fargo. Writing and Directing are difficult. I’m going for an O.J. double for the pilot, but don’t be surprised if Fargo takes Directing or The Night Manager takes Writing, especially if O.J. splits.
I’ll do my full predictions tomorrow, and I have to say, I’m really hyped for this year’s Emmys. There’s some great shows nominated, and I know there will be some wins that no one will see coming, so it should be a fun watch, and definitely worth staying up for. Here’s hoping Jimmy Kimmel does a good job hosting, and it’ll be a fun show.